AGING AND ARMED FORCES
Dr. Eduardo C. Gerding
Summary
This article deals with the demographic revolution
in Argentina, its projection
over time and the impact on its Armed Forces. The
process of population aging
that is taking place is unprecedented and will
affect the life and development of
modern society. The
United Nations (2017) estimated that the world population
aged 65 and older is expected to pass 2 billion and
the population aged 80 and
older to pass 1 billion, respectively, by 2050.
Cet article traite de la révolution
démographique en Argentine, de sa projection
dans le temps et de son impact sur ses
forces armées. Le processus de
vieillissement de la population en
cours est sans précédent et affectera la vie et
le développement de la société moderne.
How is the current Argentine population made up 15,23,52
Population estimates and projects Total country Demographic
Analysis Series Number 30 INDEC Demographic Observatory Number 3, ECLAC /
CELADE 2007.
observed, which,
by 2050, would constitute 19% of the population (that is,1 in 5
Argentines). Vulnerable
population is the group of people who are in a state of
vulnerability or
incapacity against a threat to their psychological, physical and
mental condition,
among others. According to the United Nations (1956),
populations are
"young" if they have less than 4% of people aged 65 and over;
"Mature"
if they are between 4 and 6%, and "aged" if they exceed 7% of people
in the above
group. 37. In Argentina there are
105 women for every
100 men, but this
ratio increases in the sector of 65 or more years. 10
The most useful
population range for the armed forces (25 to 54 years old) will
represent only
39.46% of the Argentine population.
In Spain, the age with the highest number of probabilities of success for
recruitment is 18
years. Henceforth, interest in the Spanish Armed Forces
dwindles and to
this must be added the demographic brake. 36
At what speed has this aging occurred?
It took Spain 50
years to go from a population over 65 years of age from 5% in
1900 to 7% in
1950. In Argentina this process took only
14 years (5% in 1957
and 7% in 1971). 37
Causes of Argentine population aging
1. Decrease in fertility
According to a study by the UADE´s
Institute of Social Sciences, in 2015
Birth Rate in Argentina fell to an average
of 2.11 children per mother.
This represents a 62 percent drop since 1978. The biggest drop
was
produced in the most developed social
classes. In the populations with less
resources the figure remain above average.
The Replacement
Rate is the minimum fertility rate that a population needs to
maintain its demographic level in equality
or growth. There are four zones in
Argentina below the Replacement Rate: the
City of Buenos Aires (1.57), the
province of Buenos Aires ,which
concentrates the largest population
of the country (1.97), provinces of Córdoba
(1.80) and Santa Fe (1.90).
2. Age of pregnancy
The group of women 25-29 years-old recorded
the highest relative weight of
fertility until the year 2000, but since
2005 the fertility group moved to 30-34
years.Besides,the age chosen for the
first marriage increased five years
since 2001.9
3. Number of children per mother
In the Federal Capital, one of the most
developed neighborhoods, like
Recoleta, averages one child per mother,
while the Commune 8 (composed
of Villa Lugano, Villa Soldati and Villa
Riachuelo) averages 2.9.
4. Decrease in Gross Mortality Rates
Life expectancy has been increasing since
1840 at a rate of two and a half
years for each decade. In UK, the average
mortality for people between 65
and 74 years is 23 per thousand while in
Argentina is 24.6 per thousand.
52,62
Main causes of death in Argentine older adults (1999-2010)-
Directorate of Statistics and Health Information (DEIS)
Ischemic heart
disease
Cerebrovascular diseases
Influenza and
pneumonia
These four chronic
non-communicable diseases caused in 1999
almost 40
percent of deaths
for the age of 65, and accounted for almost 30 percent in
2010. 62. In Argentina, the prevalence of
high blood pressure (50-59
years old) is
between 27.6 and 28.9 percent. but it increases to 65 percent in
those over 60
years of age. There is an interesting study that we could
extrapolate to our
Malvinas War Veterans, according to which,
veterans of war
presented, as they grew older, a greater risk of heart diseases. 68
5.Aging Index
The Aging Index
allows us to observe the balance between young generations
(between 0-14) and
older adults (65 or more).In 1970, the aging rate was 23.8
older adults for
every 100 young people (with a higher proportion of women)
62. Currently,
the City of Buenos Aires has the highest proportion of older
adults (17.2%). 10. Thanks to medical and technological
advances, a new
vital stage of
people arised between 55 and 70 years old which has been called
the silver generation. 34
Consequences of population aging
1. Contraction of
the labor force (proportion of population between 15 and 65
years)
2. Decreased
productivity with a population less
inclined to incorporate
new technologies needed.
3. A reduced
productive force should provide for an
increasingly large
dependent group. 52
Currently, there are 6,805,192 beneficiaries
of the pension
system. In Argentina, there are 1.7 active
workers for every retiree or
pensioner , while specialists advise that
the ratio between contributors
and liabilities should be between 3 and 4. 2
80% receive a single benefit that is made up
of 32% of people who made
contributions and 48% of people benefited
from moratoriums (who made no
contributions).Besides, 20% have a double
benefit, that is, people who
simultaneously receive a retirement and a
pension. 22
Researchers from Harvard University found that tthe lack of insurance
health, was
linked to an excess of 45,000 annual deaths in the strip of
patients 18 to 64 years old even after
considering factors such as
smoking, obesity, ethnicity, income and
alcohol intake. 33
Most health systems have gaps in
accessibility, afordability or are simply
overcrowded and understafed, particularly for
remote, low income and more
vulnerable populations.
Number of medicine
doctors and nurses per 1000 inhabitants 57
Medicine doctors Nurses Total
Argentina 3.96 2.58 6.54
USA 2.59 11.74 14.33
UK 2.81 7.80 10.61
4. Impact on unemployment:
Unemployment at
the end of 2019 was 8.9%. There were 2,000,000
unemployed. Women
under 30 years of age suffered the most .(18.9%). 8
5. Impact on poverty:
In Argentina, a citizen with an income less
than US $ 617 is considered poor
and indigent if
its less than US $ 249. Veterans of War receive a national
pension that in
March 2020 was about US $ 586.51. A controversial report by
María Laura
Tramezzani (former director JP Morgan) states that 50 per cent of
the Argentine
population is poor, and in three years that figure would rise to 80
percent. 64
6. Increase in welfare costs:
The costs derived
from aging, at least in health, are incalculable. In the US, in
1998, of health
expenditures, older people consumed a third of the
approximately $
1,146 trillion required. These data acquire special relevance at
present for our
Welfare Institute of the Armed Forces (IOSFA) ,born in 2013,
which currently
has more than 600 thousand members and manages 20,000
Argentine million
pesos annually.
The tendency of
cutting military spending to pay for elder-care costs is
likely to repeat
itself in the state that is ageing faster than any of the great
powers: China. 1,19.
China's attempts to renege on promised benefits to
retirees led to
large-scale protests and riots, including in the major cities of
Liaoyang and
Daqing. The pressure from these protests was so great that the
authoritarian
Chinese government promised to extend pension benefits to an
additional 50
million people (Haas 2007: 124)
(Discover Buenos Aires.Health Care
Costs in Argentina. https: // discoverbuenosaires.com/
health-care-costs-argentina) 13
7. Social conflict:
The UK Ministry of
Defence’s Joint Doctrine Publication 04, ( Understanding,
Chapter 2.) use
the term conflict in its widest sense to refer to disputes
between people at
all levels, from the individual and domestic to the collective
and international.
One of the objectives of understanding is precisely developing
empathy with
another individual, group or community. (Understand
to prevent:
The military contribution to the
prevention of violent conflict-MCDC)
This is very
important, as the coexistence of communities of high fertility and
younger average
age, with low fertility and aging communities like Argentina, is
a cause of social conflict.
A 2019 study
carried out by the University of San Andrés found that the main
problems for
Argentine citizens were: inflation (54%), insecurity
(40%),
unemployment
(36%), poverty (26%), corruption (24 %),
politicians (21%), low
wages (20%),
education (17%), Justice (17%), external debt (16%), drug
trafficking (12%),
health (8%), access to own housing (3%), other (2%),
transportation
(2%), the Police (1%), slums (1%)24,49,50,51,52
8.At the Armed Forces level:
Eventhou military,
civilian personnel and service leadership have consistently
taken the view view
that maintaining or improving quality is generally more
important tan sustaining
numbers of personnel. 3,30, nevertheless
the
scarcity of the optimal military age population (ranges from 16-18 and 28-30
years) will certainly
impact the Armed Forces human resources. The current
model of professional volunteers will enter into stiff
competition with the
business world. 36,59,61
Brig Amrit Kapur
wrote at the Indian Defence Review (Ageing
Defence
Forces: The Enemy
Within) : The
profession demands a younger
profile, whereas due to the narrow
pyramid of promotional avenues, the age
profile in various command assignments
continues to soar upwards.
If we
continue in the same manner, we will
end up very soon having units
commanded by Brigadiers. Instead of
addressing the core issues, we try to
push the main problem under the carpet.29,55
The Japanese SDF was
unable to hit recruitment quotas since 2014. Overall,
the military was
only able to recruit about 77 percent of the 9,734 lowest-rank
enlisted personnel
it had sought in the year ending in March. “Twenty
years
from now, unless we can replace a
considerable number of people with robots,
it’ll be hard to maintain the current
level of war capability,”
said Akihisa
Nagashima, a
former parliamentary vice defense minister and conservative
independent
lawmaker.58,65
On the other hand,
regarding our ageing military there should be specific
government strategies for fostering resilience,
strengthening social
relationships and
networks, promoting physical and mental health, and
designing
interventions at specific points of transition in military life.
18,35,39,40,56
9.At the level of the Malvinas War Veterans 12
Argentina has
23,420 war veterans according to the MoD. Nearly 22,000
receive a pension from the government. About
10,000 of them belong to the
Province of Buenos Aires. PTSD is a most
important issue.
Post
Traumatic Stress of Late Appearance (LOSS) refers to the development
of thoughts, reminders and emotional
responses associated with the war
experience that occur in the context of aging
against losses such as
retirement, the death of loved ones and
health disorders. LOSS would be
related to sub threshold levels of PTSD. 5,6,27. The percentage of older adults
with subclinical levels of PTSD symptoms
ranges from 7 to 15%.
11,20,21,27,32,41
The prevalence of PTSD measured throughout
life, between the veterans of
war and former prisoners of war of WW2 and
Korea (average age = 71 years)
has been 53%, the current prevalence being 29
%. 12,27,63,66 Vieweg et al.
found many
cases of overweight and obesity among male US veterans
affected by PTSD relative to the general
population. (J Natl Med Assoc. 2006
April;
98 (4): 580–586.) Patients
with chronic PTSD showed dyslipidemia and
increased coronary heart disease. 17,28,31,33,44
Adult war veterans showed greater somatic
disorders (appetite, sleep and
memory), greater anxiety
and drug abuse, while young war veterans presented
more depression
and hostility. 52 .In vulnerable
people, anger, stress,
depression or sadness
may trigger an Acute Coronary Syndrome .The
symptoms of PTSD
would contribute to the aggressive behaviors observed in
elderly sick and
cognitively impaired patients. 7
Proposed Solutions
1. Increase the incorporation of women
in the Armed Forces.
In 2017, women
made up less than 17% of the total forces 25,46,54.. The
Argentine Navy and
Air Force do not have any ranking or closed orientation to
female
incorporation. The maximum degree reached by women of the
professional body
in the Argentine Army is that of a Colonel.
In the US, in
early 2018, women represented 20.3% in the Air Force, 11.8% in
the Army, 11.6% in
the Navy, 8.7% in the Guard Coast and 5.6% in the Marine
Corps, one of the
most demanding branches.
2. Activate the Military Reserves.
The personnel must
be remunerated according to hierarchy and aptitude. Some
authors think that
this possibility should be opened exclusively to those who
lack years to
retire with assets. 16 All citizens
must have some
category of
reservists, from those with training, those who are trained and
capable of being
enlisted, to those who have never set foot in a barracks.
26,43,53,70
3.Lighten the regulation on immigration
policy.
In the case of the Armed Forces, there are
excellent works describing the
causes and
consequences of the recruitment of immigrants.14
Spain contemplates
this for immigrants from Latin America who, given their
language identity
and religion with the Spanish would have
no problems of
cultural
integration. UK incorporates into its Armed Forces. non-British nationals
from foreign
countries (e.g: gurkhas). France
enrolls in the Foreign Legion,
foreigners between
17 and 40 years old regardless of nationality who approve
the selection
process.The awarding of decorations is also another proof of the
professionalism of foreigners. Of the millions
of men and women who have
served in the US Army only 3,405 have received
the Medal of Honor, and of
them 715 were
immigrants (20.9%).69
4. Promote the human capital of old-
timers.
We must bear in mind that 40% of world consumption corresponds to people
over 65 years. 40% of adventure
tourists are over 50 years old 34.48 .
It is important to promote healthy habits among older adults by promoting their
insertion in the educational system. Age discrimination on the other hand is
unconstitutional.
5.Increase
prolife policies that promote and protect the family.
Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, France, Italy and
Muslim Asia have prolife policies 42. Some of the policies
observed have been the construction of quality nurseries in working places ,
lengthening of the maternity leave, laws on reduced working hours for
breastfeeding women .Poor women have more children than desired due to
educational motives and difficult access to adequate family planning, while
mothers from social middle sectors, more educated and labor-active, find
difficulties in reconciling family and profesional life.
Late motherhood causes a greater social burden for Argentine women,
who must duplicate their effort to care for their children and their elderly
parents as well .47
The progressive increase in families
with only one child will cause, in a
democratic environmernt ,pressure on governments in order not to invest in
soldiers who, in in most cases ,would be the only offspring for many of their
voters. 36
6.Increase
employment through government and business actions.
Although it is not the objective of this
article to discuss economic politics we
should say that in 2017, there were 21.3 million people who made up the
population economically active: approximately 6.5 million had formal salaried
positions, 2.3 million registered independent jobs and 3.9 million were in the
public sector. The industry contributed 1.25 million registered jobs that have
higher wages than the average. 38,45
7.Robots 4
Robert Cone, the man in charge of the
U.S. Army's Training and Doctrine
Command, said in 2013 that machines like drones and robots could replace up
to a quarter of troops in combat by 2030. The potential move would be made
possible, according to Cone, by enhanced robot technology on the battlefield.
Airmen and sailors will be replaced with “robots”; both autonomous systems and
remotely operated. Soldiers and marines will be the last people replaced, if
replaced they are.
Conclusion:
Countries like Italy, Greece, Sweden,
Japan and Spain face the problem of
ageing very much like Argentina. Notwithstanding, Argentina has a foreign debt
of U$S 323.177(88% of its GNP; the biggest in Latin America) and an 8%
unemployment which makes things harder.48,60,64,67. In any case, actions
should begin as soon as possible.
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